ING argues that while easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, bond markets are unlikely to return to pre-conflict conditions as inflation and real yields remain structurally elevated.
- U.S. inflation breakevens have largely normalized, but real yields remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, keeping Treasury yields anchored higher.
- The ECB’s recent rate hike and continued hawkish rhetoric suggest markets may be underestimating the persistence of inflationary pressures in Europe.
- ING expects continued volatility in energy markets as depleted oil reserves are replenished and geopolitical risks remain present despite diplomatic progress.
Explore the full analysis for a deeper examination of bond-market dynamics, inflation expectations, and the outlook for global rates.
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