Northern Trust also highlights a growing shift in US banking regulation, where policymakers are beginning to ease post-2008 constraints in response to the explosive rise of private credit markets.
- Federal Reserve officials are considering softer capital requirements and lighter supervisory standards for banks, particularly around lower-risk lending.
- The rise of private credit — now estimated at roughly $1.6 trillion — emerged largely because stricter post-crisis banking regulations pushed riskier lending outside the traditional banking system.
- Policymakers increasingly worry that excessive regulation weakened banks’ competitiveness while allowing non-bank lenders to dominate corporate credit markets.
- Northern Trust suggests the reforms could slowly reopen credit creation within the regulated banking system, though new financial risks may only emerge years later.
There is a cyclical irony underneath the debate: every financial crisis produces tighter rules, and every long expansion eventually produces pressure to loosen them again.
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