Allianz frames the current moment as something more dangerous than a geopolitical event: the early stages of a supply-side shock working its way through the system.
- The immediate impact is clear—higher yields, wider spreads, stronger dollar—but the second-order effects remain underappreciated.
- The report points to cascading disruptions beyond oil: fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, even helium, all feeding into broader inflation pressures.
- The likely outcome is uncomfortable: inflation surprises to the upside while growth undershoots, a classic stagflation setup.
Perhaps most telling is what markets are not pricing. The longer the shock persists, the less “Goldilocks” becomes a plausible baseline.
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