NatWest’s latest “Rising Growth Risks” note reads less like a warning and more like an early diagnosis: the global economy is entering a phase where growth weakens, but inflation refuses to follow.
- UK businesses are already feeling the shift: over half expect higher supply-chain costs, while energy and transport disruptions are pushing inflation expectations higher.
- At the same time, forward-looking indicators suggest cooling labour markets and softer hiring, pointing to weakening demand beneath the surface.
- The broader global picture is similar: labour markets remain tight for now, but momentum is fading, leaving economies exposed to persistent inflation combined with fragile growth.
It is an uncomfortable combination. Not a collapse—but not stability either.
And in that kind of environment, policy mistakes tend to matter more than usual.
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