Positioneren met Defensieve Aandelen
Sébastien Galy, Senior Macro Strategist bij Nordea Asset Management
Nu de Amerikaanse consumptie verzwakt en het marktvertrouwen van de CEO Conference Board zich op een dieptepunt bevindt, zijn de vooruitzichten voor aandelen niet heel gunstig, en de cyclus van monetaire verruiming door de Fed is net gestart.
De winstverwachtingen voor dit kwartaal zijn zo laag dat ze opwaarts worden herzien en waarschijnlijk worden ze voor de aankomende kwartalen verder naar beneden bijgesteld. Wij gaan niet uit van een recessie in de ontwikkelde economieën, terwijl we verwachten dat de groei in China zich binnen twee kwartelen herstelt. In een omgeving van lage inkomstengroei en dreigende geruchten over een recessie, blijven de vooruitzichten voor aandelen getemperd, met een kleine positieve trend. Momenteel is er sprake van een behouden momentum vanwege een mogelijk uitzicht op een deal tussen de Verenigde Staten en China.
In aandelen bieden sommige sectoren een betere risico-rendement verhouding voor deze fase van de economische cyclus, wanneer “value” en defensieve aandelen doorgaans beter presteren. Een voorbeeld is beursgenoteerde infrastructuuraandelen, die een beperkte terugval kennen in zwakke aandelenmarkten (vergeleken met de bredere indices), maar toch een prima performance laat zien. Ter herinnering, wij blijven hoe dan ook een gediversifieerde, stabiele portefeuille aanbevelen.
About Nordea Asset Management
Nordea Asset Management (NAM, AuM 229.1bn EUR*), is part of the Nordea Group, the largest financial services group in Northern Europe (AuM 313.8bn EUR*). NAM offers European and global investors’ exposure to a broad set of investment funds. We serve a wide range of clients and distributors which include banks, asset managers, independent financial advisors and insurance companies.
Nordea Asset Management has a presence in Cologne, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Helsinki, London, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, New York, Oslo, Paris, Santiago de Chile, Singapore, Stockholm, Vienna and Zurich. Nordea's local presence goes hand in hand with the objective of being accessible and offering the best service to clients.
Nordea’s success is based on a sustainable and unique multi-boutique approach that combines the expertise of specialised internal boutiques with exclusive external competences allowing us to deliver alpha in a stable way for the benefit of our clients. NAM solutions cover all asset classes from fixed income and equity to multi asset solutions, and manage local and European as well as US, global and emerging market products.
*Source: Nordea Investment Funds S.A., 30.09.2019
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