Edmond de Rothschild argues that easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and relentless AI investment are allowing markets to look through mounting geopolitical and inflationary risks.
- Diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil back below $100/bbl and lifted the S&P 500 to fresh record highs despite lingering supply-chain fragility.
- AI infrastructure spending has become the dominant engine of U.S. growth, with private investment surging 7% annualized and hyperscalers expected to drive a large share of the projected $2.5tn U.S. investment-grade bond issuance market this year.
- The report nevertheless identifies three persistent inflation bottlenecks: energy disruption, semiconductor shortages tied to AI demand, and soaring funding needs across both governments and corporates.
The central question running through the note is whether AI-driven productivity and earnings growth can continue to offset the inflationary and geopolitical fractures building underneath the global economy.
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