Northern Trust argues the Iran conflict may force Gulf states to rethink long-term economic strategies built on oil revenues, currency pegs, and stable capital inflows.
- Several GCC nations were already scaling back Vision 2030-style ambitions before the war began.
- Fiscal breakeven oil prices remain high for many states, with Saudi Arabia around $89 and Oman $83 per barrel.
- Currency pegs to the U.S. dollar now limit monetary flexibility just as regional economies face recession risks.
- Even if Hormuz reopens, shipping, refining, fertilizer, and gas disruptions could linger for months or years.
The deeper point is not oil prices. It is that the Gulf’s development model depended on stability—and stability has become scarcer.
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