The latest forecast marks a turning point as it is the first time we have revised down our expectations for global growth since September 2016. The recovery in the world economy led to a series of upgrades with global growth reaching 3.3% in 2017, the strongest for six years. Alongside a benign inflation rate, this helped drive risk assets higher. The forecast for 2018 remains robust at 3.4%, so when combined with our forecast for rising inflation we would still say the world economy is in the expansion or reflation phase of the cycle. However, the outlook indicates that we are heading in a more stagflationary direction in late 2018 as growth cools and inflation rises.
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