Dit artikel wordt u aangeboden door Fidelity International.

Fidelity - Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come


After another vibrant earnings season and a series of stock market corrections, price-to-earnings ratios have begun to look more reasonable. But against a backdrop of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish growth, it may be too early to call the bottom of the market.



This week’s Chart Room looks at price to historic earnings valuations on the MSCI World index, which have dropped below 20x for the first time since the pandemic began in 2020 and are now at a level below the post-2000 average. Combined with the expectation that supply chain bottlenecks could soon loosen, with China in particular easing its most draconian lockdown measures, this could point to a more optimistic outlook for equities. 

The average EV/EBITDA ratio on the same index has also now dipped below the level seen just before Covid, stepping below the average level seen since 2000. 

While earnings to date in 2022 have been strong, particularly in Europe, this picture could still reverse in the second half of the year if consumer sentiment flags. The consumer confidence index for the eurozone in May stands at -21.1, not far off the all-time record low of -24.5 in April 2020. In its latest earnings call, retail giant Walmart noted that customers are increasingly opting for cheaper, private-label goods as a response to reports of inflation. 

However, indicators such as fund manager surveys, cash levels, and retail sales suggest short-term negativity may be peaking and this could provide near-term support for stocks.

There are other straws in the wind that suggest we may in fact be near the bottom of the market. Equity analyst Charlie Bilello on Twitter notes that the S&P 500 has always been higher exactly a year after CNBC broadcasts one of its “Markets in Turmoil” specials, with one-year forward returns of between 4 and 77 per cent. These segments are not aired on a regular basis - there were five episodes in 2018, two in 2019, 77 in 2020 and none in 2021 - but the latest segment ran on 5 May  this year. Of course, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, but the market has less than a year to wait to see if this indicator’s 100 per cent streak can be maintained! 

Bearing all of this in mind, it takes a bold contrarian to buy this dip. 







Important Information

This document is for Investment Professionals only and should not be relied on by private investors.

This document is provided for information purposes only and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is sent. It must not be reproduced or circulated to any other party without prior permission of Fidelity.

This document does not constitute a distribution, an offer or solicitation to engage the investment management services of Fidelity, or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or offer is not authorised or would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Fidelity makes no representations that the contents are appropriate for use in all locations or that the transactions or services discussed are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions or countries or by all investors or counterparties.

This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted on by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity is not authorised to manage or distribute investment funds or products in, or to provide investment management or advisory services to persons resident in, mainland China. All persons and entities accessing the information do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations and should consult their professional advisers.

Reference in this document to specific securities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. The research and analysis used in this documentation is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an investment manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. This material was created by Fidelity International.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

This document may contain materials from third-parties which are supplied by companies that are not affiliated with any Fidelity entity (Third-Party Content). Fidelity has not been involved in the preparation, adoption or editing of such third-party materials and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve such content.

Fidelity International refers to the group of companies which form the global investment management organization that provides products and services in designated jurisdictions outside of North America Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity only offers information on products and services and does not provide investment advice based on individual circumstances.

Issued in Europe: Issued by FIL Investments International (FCA registered number 122170) a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., authorised and supervised by the CSSF (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and FIL Investment Switzerland AG. For German wholesale clients issued by FIL Investment Services GmbH, Kastanienhöhe 1, 61476 Kronberg im Taunus. For German Institutional clients issued by FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., 2a, rue Albert Borschette BP 2174 L-1021 Luxembourg.

In Hong Kong, this document is issued by FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited and it has not been reviewed by the Securities and Future Commission. FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No: 199006300E) is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Singapore. FIL Asset Management (Korea) Limited is the legal representative of Fidelity International in Korea. In Taiwan, Independently operated by FIL Securities (Taiwan ) Limited, 11F, 68 Zhongxiao East Road., Section 5, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City, Taiwan 11065, R.O.C Customer Service Number: 0800-00-9911#2 .

Issued in Australia by Fidelity Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”). This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors and may contain information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law.

ED22 - 095