Northern Trust’s April outlook says the main economic threat from the Iran conflict is not recession, but a renewed inflation pulse through energy and disrupted supply chains.
- Oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, plastics, and aluminum disruptions may take months to normalize, even under a ceasefire.
- U.S. CPI rose to a two-year high of 3.3%, led by gasoline and fuel oil.
- Northern Trust still expects 2.2% U.S. GDP growth in 2026, showing confidence in economic resilience.
- The Fed may deliver one late-year cut, but only if inflation spillovers remain contained.
The implication is subtle but important: growth can survive the shock, but inflation may prove far harder to contain.
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