The feautered weekly commentary argues that the war’s financial consequences are now spreading well beyond energy prices and into the fiscal architecture of both combatants and bystanders.
- Northern Trust estimates the war has already cost the U.S. around $20 billion, with an additional $200 billion defense supplement requested to replenish depleted arsenals.
- The report warns that the bigger issue is not just military spending, but the broader fiscal knock-on effects: higher bond yields, weaker tax receipts, FX interventions, subsidy burdens, and wider deficits.
- It also makes a broader geopolitical point: in a more fragmented world, so-called middle powers like India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Brazil, and the UAE may become more economically and strategically influential.
In other words, this is no longer just a war story. It is becoming a sovereign balance-sheet story.
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