ING’s commodities team reviews how renewed US-Iran tensions are injecting risk premium into energy markets, while softer fundamentals weigh on metals and agriculture
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Brent and WTI firmed toward $63–64/bbl after Iranian naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz, though warmer US weather and easing supply risks pressured natural gas below $3/MMBtu.
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Base metals trade cautiously: copper holds under $13,000/t as exchange inventories exceed one million tonnes, signalling softer Chinese demand.
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Cocoa has fallen over 70% from 2024 peaks on improved West African weather and export backlogs.
Are markets underpricing geopolitical energy risk—or overreacting to transient supply noise? The full note examines cross-commodity signals.
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