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The current trade-off between growth and price stability suggests that the rates cutting cycle will be pushed back into later this year, with market pricing in fewer than two interest rate cuts in 2024. The PMI survey readings for May suggest continued momentum in the economy—giving the BoE some breather following stagflation concerns spurred by last year’s mild recession. But the road ahead for whoever is in 10 Downing Street after the July 4th election is punctuated with productivity and fiscal challenges—the latter set to loom over election campaigns.

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