Privilégier les actions “défensives”
Sébastien Galy, Senior Macro Stratégiste chez Nordea Asset Management
Alors que la consommation américaine commence à ralentir, que les investissements s’estompent et que la confiance des dirigeants d’entreprises est à son niveau le plus bas (selon les données récentes du CEO Conference Board), les perspectives des marchés actions semblent moins favorables.
Les prévisions bénéficiaires des entreprises pour ce trimestre sont si basses qu’elles sont en train d’être révisées à la hausse, tandis que celles des prochains trimestres devraient être largement revues à la baisse. Toutefois, nous éviterons très probablement une récession dans les économies avancées. De son côté, la reprise de la croissance chinoise devrait intervenir dans deux trimestres. Dans un tel environnement caractérisé par une faible croissance des bénéfices et des discours excessifs quant à l’hypothèse d’une récession, les actions affichent à court-moyen terme une légère tendance positive : nous l’observons actuellement avec un élan soutenu par l’espoir d’un accord commercial entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine.
Au sein des marchés actions, certains segments offrent une meilleure rentabilité ajustée au risque, dans une phase du cycle économique lors de laquelle les valeurs défensives et les actions dites “value” affichent traditionnellement des performances supérieures. À titre d’exemple, le segment des infrastructures cotées en bourse dont les drawdowns (ou pertes maximales) sont limités par rapport aux indices plus larges, offre des performances robustes. Pour rappel, nous continuons de préconiser la détention d’un portefeuille diversifié et résilient.
À propos de Nordea Asset Management
Nordea Asset Management gérant 229,1 milliards d’euros*, fait partie du groupe Nordea, le plus grand groupe financier du Nord de l’Europe, avec 313,8 milliards d’euros d’actifs sous gestion*.
Nordea Asset Management offre une large gamme de solutions d’investissements à la fois pour les investisseurs européens et d’autres continents. Nous collaborons avec de nombreux clients et plateformes, a savoir des banques, des gestionnaires de portefeuille, des conseillers patrimoniaux indépendants et des sociétés d’assurance.
Nordea Asset Management est présent à Bonn, Bruxelles, Copenhague, Francfort, Helsinki, Londres, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, New-York, Oslo, Paris, Santiago de Chile, Singapour, Stockholm, Vienne et Zurich. Cette présence locale marque la volonté de Nordea d’être toujours accessible pour ses clients et de leur offrir le meilleur service.
Le succès de Nordea repose sur une approche multi-boutique combinant l’expertise de nos équipes de gestion internes et des compétences exclusives de gérants externes avec pour objectif de générer de l’alpha de façon durable pour le bénéfice de nos clients. Nos solutions d’investissement couvrent toutes les clases d’actifs, de la gestion obligataire aux actions en passant par des solutions diversifiées, investissant dans de nombreux marchés comme l’Europe, les Etats-Unis, les marches émergents voire le monde entier.
*Source: Nordea Investment Funds, S.A., 30.09.2019
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