Travel Flows, Dollar Dominance, and Helium Shortages Reveal a Fragmenting Global Economy

Northern Trust’s weekly commentary argues that cross-border movement of people, capital, and strategic commodities is increasingly shaped by geopolitics rather than pure economics. 

• Global tourism reached a record 1.52 billion travelers in 2025, yet U.S.-bound demand and several Asian travel corridors remain structurally weaker.
• Despite de-dollarisation headlines, the dollar still accounts for roughly 80% of global crude oil transactions, with reserve share remaining resilient.
• Qatar supplies about one-third of global helium, and recent disruptions highlight hidden vulnerabilities for semiconductors, medical imaging, and aerospace supply chains.

The next phase of globalization may be less about openness and more about strategic chokepoints.