Global Resilience Amid Tariff Shocks: Navigating Uncertainty with Strategic Clarity

This Q2 2025 Economic and Strategy Viewpoint by Schroders presents a forward-looking macroeconomic outlook shaped by US trade policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and diverging regional fiscal responses.

• Global GDP is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, with manageable downside from current tariff levels (~12%).

• US GDP expected at 1.7% in 2025, rising to 2.4% in 2026; inflation remains elevated at 3.1%, keeping the Fed on hold this year.

• Eurozone momentum improves with German fiscal stimulus; ECB set to cut rates to 2% as inflation moderates.

Explore the full report for detailed scenario analysis, interest rate forecasts, and insights on how geopolitical shifts may influence global markets.