China’s consumers are driving an uneven economic recovery since the pandemic ended, spending on luxury items but holding back or demanding greater value for money in other areas. Despite these challenges, some consumer companies are gaining market share, in some cases by exploring new niche categories.

Call it China’s barbell-shaped recovery. A visit to one of the shopping malls in Shanghai’s Lujiazui financial district offers a glimpse of the new purchasing patterns taking shape in the country as the effects of the pandemic ebb. At the swanky IFC mall, wealthy Chinese consumers stand in line waiting to enter shops like Hermès and Louis Vuitton, their patience a reflection of their undiminished appetite for top-end luxury goods. But at the same time, we spotted only a few people visiting other foreign clothing boutiques that are pitched towards middle-income customers. At another, more mainstream, mall across the street it’s a different picture. A food court in the basement offering cheap noodles, dumplings, and 40-renminbi ($5.50) lunchboxes is packed with white-collar workers during lunchtime. This hustle and bustle contrasts with the emptiness at high-end restaurants on the eighth floor, which used to be a popular destination for business lunches before the pandemic.

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These scenes confirm a story emerging at our meetings with company executives and backed up by other data in China. Consumer demand now looks something like a barbell: fat at the low end and the high end - as shown in the strong sales of both luxury items and consumer staples - but squeezed thin in the middle. Frugality is on the rise among middle-class Chinese, worried about their job and income prospects. Despite this, individuals are more cashed-up than ever, depositing a record 11.9 trillion renminbi ($1.7 trillion) into banks in the first six months of this year. 

Demand is pent-up. Many people have become more cost-conscious, downtrading or even foregoing purchases, especially of discretionary products. Shoppers are focusing more than ever on quality and value, and comparing prices across several channels before making a decision. They flock to discount retail platforms where they can find big bargains via group buying. PDD Holdings, the company best known for its Pinduoduo app, reported a 58 per cent jump in revenue in the first quarter from a year earlier.

The frugality trend has also been reflected in spending data. Domestic tourism revenue during the Dragon Boat Festival in June was still 5 per cent below the same period in 2019, before the pandemic, according to a statement from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Similar spending during the Labour Day holidays in May was flat from the same period in 2019. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s retail sales grew 3.1 per cent in June, slowing sharply from a 12.7 per cent jump in the previous month.

Conservative consumption

While pricing pressures ripple across the value chain, there are still plenty of categories and companies more likely to buck the broader spending slowdown as they find new ways to maintain or increase market share. The best examples we’ve seen come down to understanding consumers’ desire for healthier options amid busy lifestyles; that includes developing food, beverage and skincare products that meet both their aspirations and budgets - like the frozen food firm selling the convenience of ready-to-cook meals for consumers who want to enjoy dinner at home on busy weeknights. 

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Field Notes: How to weigh China’s barbell-shaped consumer recovery (fidelity.be)

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