Geopolitical Tensions Deepen the UK’s Stagflation Challenge

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NatWest’s latest “Britonomics” report examines how rising geopolitical tensions, energy shocks, and persistent inflation pressures are complicating the UK’s economic outlook.

  • UK firms are signaling stagflationary conditions, with 57% expecting to raise prices while weakening demand and softer employment expectations weigh on growth.
  • The UK services sector slipped into contraction territory in May, while policymakers warn that renewed energy shocks could require further monetary tightening.
  • Despite higher mortgage rates, credit demand and housing activity remain relatively resilient, while the UK’s net-zero economy continues to expand across regions.

The report offers deeper insight into how inflation, policy risks, and structural investment trends are shaping the UK economy’s next phase.

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