This briefing from NatWest’s Chief Economist team examines the Bank of England’s November decision to pause rate cuts and the implications for the UK’s growth trajectory.
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Policy Pause: The Bank Rate held at 4% in a narrow 5–4 vote, signalling a data-dependent path ahead as inflation pressures ease.
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Mixed Growth Outlook: GDP forecasts improved slightly to 1.4% for 2025–26, yet household consumption remains stagnant despite income gains.
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Labour and Fiscal Challenges: Hiring softens, business uncertainty rises, and fiscal headroom remains tight amid policy U-turns and productivity downgrades.
For a deeper dive into policy direction, market implications, and fiscal scenarios, explore the full analysis on NatWest Chief Economist Insights.
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