2021 Investment Outlook: A macroeconomic and asset allocation framework

The year 2020 saw the global economy plunged into economic turmoil. Unlike many past crises, this one was unique in that it was not economic in origin but started as a health crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic rapidly impacted the economy through lockdowns across the globe, which stymied economic activity and caused an unprecedented destruction of demand. Given these circumstances, we recognize that the shape of economic growth in the coming year is dependent on a wide variety of factors, including: infection rates, fiscal policy, monetary policy, public health policy including the severity – or “stringency” – of lockdowns, progress towards the development of therapies and a vaccine, and consumer and business confidence.