Late-Cycle Investing

The global trade order that has existed for decades is being disrupted. Several economic

indicators are running hot (see Figure 1) even as the current U.S. expansion has begun its tenth

year. Volatility is higher as some investors price a dire outcome while others are more sanguine,

creating relative value opportunities. In this midyear update to our outlook, detailed in our paper “ Singles and Doubles,” we discuss some medium- to longer-term themes relating to late-cycle investing as well as some shorter- term opportunities arising from current market dynamics.