A Fragile Truce: US-EU Tariff Deal Reduces Uncertainty, but Not Without Cost

DWS’s CIO Flash (July 28, 2025) analyzes the preliminary US-EU trade agreement, highlighting its near-term market implications, economic trade-offs, and sector-level impacts for global investors.

• Tariff reset reshapes trade: A 15% blanket tariff replaces most prior U.S. duties on EU imports—lowering peak rates but widening coverage, with exceptions for key sectors like aviation and raw materials.

• Macroeconomic consequences diverge: The deal slightly dampens EU GDP growth while potentially fueling U.S. inflation, delaying expected rate cuts from both the Fed and ECB.

• Sector winners and losers emerge: Aerospace benefits from tariff exemptions, while auto, pharma, and chemicals face higher—but more predictable—trade barriers.

What does this geopolitical recalibration mean for inflation, policy, and cross-border positioning? The full report unpacks scenario risks and strategic implications.